TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Trump say "Somalia" during his February 4 press conference with Netanyahu?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$26,639
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,989

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,639 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No2c3,291$50 inLost-$49.5851138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed No1c2,685$22 inLost-$22.265143.1%22 W · 29 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-15%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No2c2,682$51 inLost-$50.57567.1%4 W · 52 L-3.9wins-0.07per pick14cpaid-69.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe08f…2ad4backed Yes10c1,500$145 inWon+$1,355825%2 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick9cpaid+279.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2139…4b34backed No77c1,055$814 inLost-$813.86825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-63.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9b6…61cebacked No2c1,000$20 inLost-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ad6…464cbacked No78c945.36$739 inLost-$738.91560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+124.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed No10c895$86 inLost-$86.1219930.7%61 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x838c…5252backed No2c700.45$15 inLost-$151735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-43.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde4b…9031backed No5c662.33$34 inLost-$33.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked No17c540.68$89 inLost-$89.357856.4%44 W · 34 L+8.9wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+36.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No2c496.71$11 inLost-$11.139955.6%55 W · 44 L+10.5wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+17%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x5905…41abbacked Yes34c104$35 inWon+$68.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d38…2bf3backed No66c104$69 inLost-$68.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1f6…2478backed No66c88$58 inLost-$58.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b82…64bcbacked Yes19c84$16 inWon+$68.04450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+64%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x120b…f84fbacked Yes19c71$13 inWon+$57.51250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+163.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4535…4a97backed Yes19c65$12 inWon+$52.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+426.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Yes23c64.96$15 inWon+$49.96250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+116.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa827…735fbacked No75c61$46 inLost-$45.75250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd3b…8d58backed Yes25c61$15 inWon+$45.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+300%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e72…743cbacked Yes35c57.84$20 inWon+$37.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+189.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xada9…2307backed Yes34c54$18 inWon+$35.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc65b…51fabacked Yes34c36.27$12 inWon+$23.94250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+47.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x05f3…337cbacked Yes45c23.53$11 inWon+$12.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c96…0e03backed No66c19$13 inLost-$12.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.