TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Trump say "Israel" 5+ times during his February 4 press conference with Netanyahu?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$36,959
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$42,761

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,959 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb78e…30e3backed No14c3,505$482 inLost-$482.23339.4%13 W · 20 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+106%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2139…4b34backed No78c2,065$1,614 inLost-$1,614.06825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-63.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe81…5fe9backed Yes47c1,991$941 inWon+$1,049.991181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.18per pick64cpaid+40.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x49b6…170cbacked Yes34c1,917$646 inWon+$1,270.263847.4%18 W · 20 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+22.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe08f…2ad4backed Yes5c1,000$50 inWon+$950825%2 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick9cpaid+279.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No8c640.2$51 inLost-$50.64567.1%4 W · 52 L-3.9wins-0.07per pick14cpaid-69.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed No3c639.64$17 inLost-$16.616141%25 W · 36 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-14.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6cff…c3dabacked No3c582.04$18 inLost-$17.6590%0 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8797…bbbebacked Yes75c495.74$371 inWon+$124.632437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes68c338.5$230 inWon+$108.3251138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf41…1587backed No32c155.42$50 inLost-$50.051353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc468…009dbacked Yes20c115.37$23 inWon+$91.9514945%67 W · 82 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Yes50c99$50 inWon+$49.53228.1%9 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-31.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dbc…421dbacked No30c90.99$27 inLost-$27.320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce94…7bb0backed No16c87$14 inLost-$13.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2f1…bd6abacked Yes70c85.71$60 inWon+$25.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed No20c80$16 inLost-$166238.7%24 W · 38 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5177…a0f6backed Yes79c68.45$54 inWon+$14.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x120b…f84fbacked No23c60$14 inLost-$13.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+163.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b82…64bcbacked Yes77c60$46 inWon+$13.8450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+64%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x06ca…54b2backed Yes77c58$45 inWon+$13.34333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-56.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc5e5…e4cfbacked No23c58$13 inLost-$13.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33f0…f60dbacked Yes70c39.99$28 inWon+$121100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1c6…1f3cbacked No53c35$19 inLost-$18.551040%4 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-32.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43f9…fce1backed Yes77c22$17 inWon+$5.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c53…31adbacked Yes77c19$15 inWon+$4.371154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.