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Asian League · resolved market

Spread: Kawasaki Frontale (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Kyōto Sanga FCof Kawasaki Frontale, Kyōto Sanga FC
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,385
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,404

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,385 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Asian League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Kyōto Sanga FC74c1,616$1,194 inWon+$421.696,02846.1%2,778 W · 3,250 L+50.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Kawasaki Frontale23c1,508$350 inLost-$350.0297742.7%417 W · 560 L+26.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6240…54c0backed Kawasaki Frontale1c1,363$15 inLost-$14.992744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Kawasaki Frontale6c612.5$37 inLost-$36.959339.8%37 W · 56 L+9.0wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+50.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Kawasaki Frontale36c535.46$193 inLost-$192.761,15541.6%480 W · 675 L-17.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Kawasaki Frontale37c265.6$100 inLost-$99.541,29650.3%652 W · 644 L+14.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Kawasaki Frontale21c178.33$37 inLost-$37.4535751%182 W · 175 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Kawasaki Frontale15c129.73$20 inLost-$19.832,80639.8%1,118 W · 1,688 L-21.8wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5659…7a6bbacked Kawasaki Frontale20c91.95$19 inLost-$18.8517028.8%49 W · 121 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid+13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9028…8608backed Kyōto Sanga FC74c59.01$44 inWon+$15.1925455.5%141 W · 113 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Kyōto Sanga FC74c50.46$37 inWon+$12.9937553.6%201 W · 174 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ac5…f963backed Kawasaki Frontale21c49.07$10 inLost-$10.313543%58 W · 77 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfeef…4b1fbacked Kyōto Sanga FC74c46.88$35 inWon+$12.0911060.9%67 W · 43 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4993…553fbacked Kyōto Sanga FC80c24.44$20 inWon+$4.895369.8%37 W · 16 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe392…d868backed Kyōto Sanga FC74c22.97$17 inWon+$5.916460.9%39 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3654…1b78backed Kyōto Sanga FC65c18$12 inWon+$6.320360.1%122 W · 81 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.