Asian League · resolved market
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a46a7fef02bc726ce22caeed312e0e7ca3fa0d4e0a06c85bce4786c5bead69f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,908
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,150
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,908 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 51c | 908.86$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.05 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 49c | 799.19$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.02 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 699.15$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.62 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 40c | 688.45$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.64 | 828 | 42.4%351 W · 477 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffdf…97f8backed Under | 50c | 442.3$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 67c | 239.61$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.14 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 47c | 235.46$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.67 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 53c | 174.29$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.92 | 1,443 | 35.3%509 W · 934 L | -36.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5fd…6f17backed Over | 48c | 140$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Over | 52c | 110$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 201 | 38.3%77 W · 124 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Under | 48c | 99.31$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 747 | 39.4%294 W · 453 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 52c | 93.31$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.79 | 169 | 29%49 W · 120 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c78…7d67backed Under | 43c | 93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed Over | 53c | 65.04$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 46c | 64.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 50c | 58.61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 46c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 206 | 38.8%80 W · 126 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d85…2fc6backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 47c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 136 | 44.9%61 W · 75 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Under | 48c | 28.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Over | 39c | 27.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 88 | 59.1%52 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 52c | 24.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 371 | 53.9%200 W · 171 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 564 | 45.4%256 W · 308 L | -25.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kawasaki Frontale vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Kawasaki Frontale vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Kawasaki Frontale vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Kawasaki Frontale vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: Kyōto Sanga FC O/U 1.5Over won
- Kawasaki Frontale vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Kawasaki Frontale vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Kawasaki Frontale vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Kawasaki Frontale vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Kawasaki Frontale (-1.5)Kyōto Sanga FC won
- Spread: Kawasaki Frontale (-2.5)Kyōto Sanga FC won
- Spread: Kyōto Sanga FC (-2.5)Kawasaki Frontale won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.