NHL · resolved market
AHL: Lehigh Valley Phantoms vs. Springfield Thunderbirds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcca6e3432f30502f5e32b531e78e091282ff1379a5def7bd1d43f9767b625088
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Springfield Thunderbirdsof Lehigh Valley Phantoms, Springfield Thunderbirds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,182
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,012
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,182 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56d4…9c57backed Springfield Thunderbirds | 51c | 2,918$1,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,424.97 | 231 | 55%127 W · 104 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Lehigh Valley Phantoms | 49c | 1,163$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.01 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c5b…abdfbacked Lehigh Valley Phantoms | 49c | 298.73$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8345…5cadbacked Lehigh Valley Phantoms | 49c | 290.82$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.5 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c5b…cc75backed Lehigh Valley Phantoms | 49c | 221.63$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Lehigh Valley Phantoms | 46c | 190$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.4 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…9924backed Lehigh Valley Phantoms | 48c | 175.26$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.88 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8027…cf81backed Lehigh Valley Phantoms | 47c | 123.6$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.09 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39dd…7af9backed Lehigh Valley Phantoms | 49c | 118.7$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.16 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0764…41d1backed Lehigh Valley Phantoms | 49c | 105.66$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.78 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked Lehigh Valley Phantoms | 49c | 103.27$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef4…cf3abacked Lehigh Valley Phantoms | 49c | 96.94$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Lehigh Valley Phantoms | 12c | 89.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Springfield Thunderbirds | 52c | 78.73$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x008d…b839backed Springfield Thunderbirds | 64c | 77.42$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 450 | 69.3%312 W · 138 L | +51.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Lehigh Valley Phantoms | 48c | 74.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 211 | 55.5%117 W · 94 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Lehigh Valley Phantoms | 48c | 60.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Springfield Thunderbirds | 52c | 59.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.79 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15c5…4692backed Lehigh Valley Phantoms | 44c | 46.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 279 | 47.3%132 W · 147 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf42d…38ecbacked Lehigh Valley Phantoms | 46c | 46.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Springfield Thunderbirds | 53c | 41.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 497 | 47.9%238 W · 259 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0e…b0babacked Lehigh Valley Phantoms | 47c | 41.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x623a…5144backed Lehigh Valley Phantoms | 48c | 40.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x096d…38dfbacked Lehigh Valley Phantoms | 49c | 39.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2d…d7f8backed Springfield Thunderbirds | 52c | 39.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 127 | 48.8%62 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Lehigh Valley Phantoms | 49c | 33.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 222 | 55.9%124 W · 98 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Lehigh Valley Phantoms | 47c | 30.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 924 | 44.5%411 W · 513 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.