Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Baylor Bears (-25.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xccb80929f6c6bb78af51b3e7801f8102edc6f4f2dff03ba8f8d0bfb77b2badd8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baylor Bearsof Baylor Bears, Southern Jaguars
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,798
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,800
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,798 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac75…1319backed Southern Jaguars | 49c | 10,399$5,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,077.44 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +6.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Baylor Bears | 51c | 3,011$1,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,468.32 | 1,074 | 47%505 W · 569 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Baylor Bears | 51c | 1,999$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.56 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Baylor Bears | 52c | 1,179$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.07 | 841 | 47.4%399 W · 442 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Baylor Bears | 51c | 999.8$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.9 | 898 | 50%449 W · 449 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Baylor Bears | 51c | 732$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.68 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…eeaebacked Baylor Bears | 52c | 498.9$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.49 | 1,227 | 27.8%341 W · 886 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8c…237dbacked Baylor Bears | 51c | 400.71$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.35 | 175 | 46.3%81 W · 94 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c75…8c7abacked Baylor Bears | 51c | 399.8$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.9 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Baylor Bears | 51c | 306.22$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.05 | 176 | 50.6%89 W · 87 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Baylor Bears | 51c | 250$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.5 | 497 | 46.5%231 W · 266 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Baylor Bears | 51c | 247.33$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.19 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Southern Jaguars | 45c | 199.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Baylor Bears | 51c | 124.51$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.01 | 262 | 54.2%142 W · 120 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Baylor Bears | 53c | 120$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 1,070 | 46.9%502 W · 568 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd3…c066backed Baylor Bears | 51c | 101.37$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.67 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0915…d08abacked Baylor Bears | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ec…daabbacked Baylor Bears | 51c | 86.61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.01 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ac6bbacked Baylor Bears | 51c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f1…907dbacked Southern Jaguars | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd53e…e70cbacked Baylor Bears | 51c | 47.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.17 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baylor Bears (-25.5)this page
- Southern Jaguars vs. Baylor BearsBaylor Bears won
- Spread: Baylor Bears (-26.5)Baylor Bears won
- Spread: Baylor Bears (-27.5)Baylor Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.