Tennis · resolved market
Set 2 Winner: Samsonova vs Keys
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xccbc3ccc535caf9d4a7955875b774090053c2ecf5343b9c1e5b8eb17efe5d212
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Samsonovaof Samsonova, Keys
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,083
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,602
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,083 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6796…2617backed Samsonova | 22c | 3,020$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,355.73 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50b9…4467backed Keys | 40c | 1,342$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.8 | 380 | 33.9%129 W · 251 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed Keys | 79c | 1,296$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020.1 | 492 | 52.4%258 W · 234 L | +28.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a8…b1f7backed Samsonova | 28c | 516.03$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.06 | 287 | 38.3%110 W · 177 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Samsonova | 48c | 433.96$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.74 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Samsonova | 60c | 353.62$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.45 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed Keys | 77c | 305$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.85 | 561 | 53.7%301 W · 260 L | +19.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Keys | 77c | 274.23$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.52 | 1,681 | 50%841 W · 840 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Keys | 71c | 268.03$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.3 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Keys | 77c | 241.44$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.9 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55a8…e802backed Keys | 60c | 165.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 363 | 42.1%153 W · 210 L | -16.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1226…f998backed Keys | 53c | 93.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 299 | 40.1%120 W · 179 L | -15.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…e6febacked Samsonova | 21c | 88.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.72 | 2,447 | 45.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…cda7backed Keys | 79c | 86.82$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.36 | 145 | 47.6%69 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…aa54backed Keys | 79c | 55.73$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.88 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb663…f135backed Samsonova | 22c | 50.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.35 | 563 | 37.3%210 W · 353 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ad…34cebacked Keys | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 440 | 51.6%227 W · 213 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Keys | 72c | 43.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Samsonova | 58c | 37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 1,234 | 46.3%571 W · 663 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4207…fe8abacked Keys | 79c | 25.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe61a…292dbacked Keys | 79c | 25.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…10aabacked Keys | 79c | 12.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 272 | 39%106 W · 166 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1be2…e4c7backed Keys | 78c | 12.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 2 Winner: Samsonova vs Keysthis page
- Mubadala Citi DC Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Madison KeysLiudmila Samsonova won
- Samsonova vs. Keys: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Samsonova vs KeysKeys won
- Set Handicap: Keys (-1.5) vs Samsonova (+1.5)Samsonova won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.