Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xccc8cab6b86e91cf1fae6c7eaaafe4bf268fe581932484dc2bd3e23d62957b6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Carstenszof Carstensz, Mentality Monster
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,377
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,720
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,377 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd3b0…329ebacked Carstensz | 65c | 2,955$1,915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,039.72 | 802 | 56%449 W · 353 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…f944backed Mentality Monster | 35c | 2,094$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.55 | 207 | 67.1%139 W · 68 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e5…519dbacked Mentality Monster | 32c | 951.94$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.93 | 127 | 64.6%82 W · 45 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…c82abacked Carstensz | 68c | 823.23$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.36 | 614 | 56%344 W · 270 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…f081backed Mentality Monster | 35c | 550.31$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.56 | 156 | 39.1%61 W · 95 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked Mentality Monster | 32c | 471.42$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.3 | 614 | 49.5%304 W · 310 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…4601backed Carstensz | 64c | 465.88$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.48 | 414 | 55.6%230 W · 184 L | +41.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2957…b26abacked Mentality Monster | 36c | 447.13$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.74 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x450e…4fddbacked Carstensz | 69c | 361.46$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.3 | 117 | 58.1%68 W · 49 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff7…bf32backed Carstensz | 64c | 354.27$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.93 | 253 | 59.3%150 W · 103 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Carstensz | 78c | 342$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.24 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180c…cd04backed Mentality Monster | 34c | 340.91$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.04 | 437 | 38.4%168 W · 269 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Mentality Monster | 12c | 299.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1982…bc7bbacked Mentality Monster | 33c | 266.97$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.1 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…e6fcbacked Mentality Monster | 33c | 215.3$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Mentality Monster | 7c | 199.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bce…558cbacked Mentality Monster | 31c | 159.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fac…b89abacked Mentality Monster | 34c | 148.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Mentality Monster | 37c | 135.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Mentality Monster | 24c | 124.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Mentality Monster | 31c | 106.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 340 | 41.2%140 W · 200 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f9b…bc2fbacked Carstensz | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6365…df4ebacked Mentality Monster | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 225 | 38.7%87 W · 138 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86bf…a172backed Mentality Monster | 36c | 94.45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Carstensz | 70c | 72.66$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Carstensz | 73c | 65.54$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Mentality Monster | 36c | 59.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 174 | 43.1%75 W · 99 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…5aaebacked Mentality Monster | 30c | 58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Mentality Monster | 29c | 56.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 153 | 42.5%65 W · 88 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Carstensz | 67c | 44.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa599…5230backed Carstensz | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x422d…7e39backed Mentality Monster | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Mentality Monster | 37c | 29.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7579…524abacked Carstensz | 64c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 74 | 55.4%41 W · 33 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Carstensz vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Carstensz vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia PlayoffsCarstensz won
- Dota 2: Carstensz vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 WinnerCarstensz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.