Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: LNG (-1.5) vs Ultra Prime (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xccdee999cde1ba2ac5038389d881c03ad57ded838f861a3df7b4ea98b166c1d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- LNG Esportsof LNG Esports, Ultra Prime
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,194
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,067
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,194 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x92d8…0924backed Ultra Prime | 47c | 11,370$5,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,368.79 | 234 | 39.7%93 W · 141 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1a…17c8backed Ultra Prime | 52c | 8,255$4,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,292.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03fc…a673backed LNG Esports | 48c | 8,212$3,942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,270.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd0…06e6backed LNG Esports | 48c | 7,960$3,821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,139.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f5…d9b1backed Ultra Prime | 52c | 7,922$4,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,119.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed LNG Esports | 53c | 6,000$3,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,820 | 262 | 46.6%122 W · 140 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3879…489fbacked LNG Esports | 53c | 1,921$1,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902.99 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc65…96c8backed LNG Esports | 53c | 1,892$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.12 | 219 | 39.3%86 W · 133 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…bc51backed LNG Esports | 54c | 1,833$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$842.02 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4e…b690backed LNG Esports | 52c | 1,200$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576 | 829 | 54.5%452 W · 377 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Ultra Prime | 46c | 617.34$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.98 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Ultra Prime | 45c | 599.98$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.99 | 1,611 | 48.4%780 W · 831 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b218backed LNG Esports | 51c | 419.49$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.55 | 277 | 35.7%99 W · 178 L | -12.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Ultra Prime | 47c | 375$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.25 | 2,367 | 31.9%756 W · 1,611 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…fe0abacked Ultra Prime | 49c | 279.41$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.91 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…f688backed Ultra Prime | 44c | 257.85$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.45 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Ultra Prime | 51c | 201.02$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.43 | 204 | 39.2%80 W · 124 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d2…1b03backed LNG Esports | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 119 | 45.4%54 W · 65 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked LNG Esports | 48c | 135.02$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.21 | 903 | 48.4%437 W · 466 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Ultra Prime | 46c | 108.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 109 | 31.2%34 W · 75 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b15…a031backed LNG Esports | 54c | 107.41$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.41 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1c…2a3ebacked LNG Esports | 54c | 89.81$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.31 | 168 | 51.2%86 W · 82 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Ultra Prime | 46c | 89.81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.31 | 323 | 45.8%148 W · 175 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked LNG Esports | 55c | 72.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.82 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Ultra Prime | 45c | 69.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 573 | 33%189 W · 384 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed LNG Esports | 50c | 55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.68 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked LNG Esports | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 222 | 50.5%112 W · 110 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf16…65a6backed LNG Esports | 73c | 17.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | -11.6wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: LNG (-1.5) vs Ultra Prime (+1.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- LoL: Ultra Prime vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group NirvanaLNG Esports won
- LoL: Ultra Prime vs LNG Esports - Game 1 WinnerLNG Esports won
- LoL: Ultra Prime vs LNG Esports - Game 2 WinnerLNG Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.