TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Ultra Prime vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
LNG Esportsof Ultra Prime, LNG Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$291,118
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$303,532

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $291,118 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 263 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb3dd…a7e0backed LNG Esports78c45,454$35,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,023.3113453.7%72 W · 62 L+0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1d4…38d6backed Ultra Prime3c37,806$1,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,080.642072.9%6 W · 201 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-75.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbca…3b1ebacked Ultra Prime22c29,386$6,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,464.8210535.2%37 W · 68 L-6.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-20.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb784…61d0backed Ultra Prime22c19,284$4,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,242.4221137.4%79 W · 132 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked LNG Esports78c12,222$9,533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,688.8241752.5%219 W · 198 L+14.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3414…067abacked Ultra Prime18c10,000$1,768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,76877131.8%245 W · 526 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1835…b828backed Ultra Prime5c6,000$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.31921.1%4 W · 15 L-3.5wins-0.18per pick39cpaid-65%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9d2a…9ee3backed Ultra Prime30c5,167$1,573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,573.196139.3%24 W · 37 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Ultra Prime21c5,099$1,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,070.731,09834.8%382 W · 716 L-17.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Ultra Prime10c4,880$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.991,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Ultra Prime22c4,800$1,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05649940.7%203 W · 296 L+18.1wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d5c…4302backed Ultra Prime23c4,735$1,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,08917949.2%88 W · 91 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e4…bc51backed Ultra Prime24c4,504$1,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0818648.8%42 W · 44 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec9a…ad34backed Ultra Prime24c4,294$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,049.9812137.2%45 W · 76 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+11.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x15a3…82dabacked Ultra Prime6c3,640$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.612512%3 W · 22 L-3.3wins-0.13per pick25cpaid-82.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5a1e…6f16backed Ultra Prime23c3,428$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.56848.5%33 W · 35 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-14.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked LNG Esports75c3,256$2,457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$799.1985046%391 W · 459 L-11.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef21…3dc9backed Ultra Prime22c3,008$662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661.7224041.3%99 W · 141 L-0.5wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01f8…c31ebacked LNG Esports78c3,000$2,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6607153.5%38 W · 33 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-18.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked Ultra Prime26c3,000$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.9930321.8%66 W · 237 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3212…634ebacked Ultra Prime17c2,946$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.221536.7%79 W · 136 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd11…79a5backed Ultra Prime1c2,735$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.822356.5%126 W · 97 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Ultra Prime25c2,694$662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.4641644.2%184 W · 232 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe8c…9e9ebacked Ultra Prime11c2,588$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.2317839.3%70 W · 108 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x664e…e82abacked LNG Esports79c2,539$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.7414866.9%99 W · 49 L+0.1wins0.00per pick67cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1257…793fbacked Ultra Prime17c2,370$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.1633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked LNG Esports76c2,317$1,761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556.0890348.4%437 W · 466 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Ultra Prime23c2,174$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50018945.5%86 W · 103 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Ultra Prime3c2,140$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.289810.7%96 W · 802 L+2.6wins0.00per pick10cpaid-36.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d73…044bbacked LNG Esports78c2,133$1,664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.2612646.8%59 W · 67 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1d9…a1b2backed Ultra Prime24c2,122$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.871450%7 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-13.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4047…7293backed LNG Esports78c2,000$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44023547.7%112 W · 123 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebf9…6852backed Ultra Prime22c2,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4406246.8%29 W · 33 L-0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed LNG Esports76c2,000$1,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4801,02952.3%538 W · 491 L+27.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3de6…405cbacked LNG Esports78c1,936$1,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.911245.5%51 W · 61 L-6.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0341…a679backed Ultra Prime22c1,915$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.319042.1%80 W · 110 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked LNG Esports72c1,836$1,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521.2659952.8%316 W · 283 L-3.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-12.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked LNG Esports75c1,823$1,373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.495041.6%395 W · 555 L-32.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Ultra Prime9c1,800$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.31,44713.3%192 W · 1,255 L-109.5wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-35.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe42b…7ea9backed Ultra Prime23c1,750$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.4946033.9%156 W · 304 L+27.7wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+22%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc19b…a935backed Ultra Prime15c1,648$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.4821937.9%83 W · 136 L-0.6wins0.00per pick38cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5976…b3d4backed LNG Esports75c1,578$1,183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.49852%51 W · 47 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed Ultra Prime23c1,500$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3451,18044.5%525 W · 655 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed LNG Esports77c1,339$1,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.2127636.2%100 W · 176 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-19.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e12…20e9backed Ultra Prime22c1,336$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29412035.8%43 W · 77 L-12.6wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-26.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1961…1dbcbacked LNG Esports77c1,331$1,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.05666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked LNG Esports79c1,266$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.8270162.2%436 W · 265 L-37.3wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a8c…f872backed Ultra Prime16c1,261$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20015754.8%86 W · 71 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed LNG Esports77c1,260$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.857945.9%266 W · 313 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf26b…f3b8backed Ultra Prime1c1,250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1028923.5%68 W · 221 L-9.6wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked Ultra Prime22c1,200$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26432345.8%148 W · 175 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcaa0…873dbacked LNG Esports77c1,175$905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.34887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick65cpaid+27%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Ultra Prime22c1,136$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2502,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked LNG Esports77c1,132$871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.41,59234%541 W · 1,051 L-79.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Ultra Prime9c1,059$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.313,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e69…4c29backed Ultra Prime22c1,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2207357.5%42 W · 31 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+19.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e01…2c8abacked LNG Esports78c1,000$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22014840.5%60 W · 88 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xabd6…ca90backed LNG Esports78c999$779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.7820764.3%133 W · 74 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick67cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd43f…0bb0backed Ultra Prime7c978.39$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.491,13030%339 W · 791 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x37a3…60a2backed Ultra Prime10c974.45$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.991030%3 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked LNG Esports71c971.94$694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.842,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cb9…3783backed Ultra Prime18c900$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16221735.9%78 W · 139 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f7c…5a30backed Ultra Prime10c891.83$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.2628942.6%123 W · 166 L+11.9wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b33…3d6abacked Ultra Prime23c886.52$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002147.6%10 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1307…d640backed Ultra Prime24c873.67$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.917345.2%33 W · 40 L-7.4wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-22.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x169f…6b96backed Ultra Prime23c869.57$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006030%18 W · 42 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x98c6…3d1ebacked Ultra Prime24c842.34$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20015246.1%70 W · 82 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee99…0171backed Ultra Prime21c800.38$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.21540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe82b…52b4backed Ultra Prime21c800$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1682733.3%9 W · 18 L-4.6wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-18.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9885…8d17backed LNG Esports76c800$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x260c…7130backed Ultra Prime23c800$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18423932.6%78 W · 161 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83c8…9541backed LNG Esports75c800$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2002969%20 W · 9 L+5.0wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+29.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf5b3…4155backed Ultra Prime22c766.91$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.7230243%130 W · 172 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb876…a86bbacked LNG Esports76c765.02$581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.616939.1%27 W · 42 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-29%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x06c2…184fbacked LNG Esports80c765$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15322250.5%112 W · 110 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1eca…576bbacked Ultra Prime3c740$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.27847.4%37 W · 41 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+18.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf386…9b3fbacked Ultra Prime2c675$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.65330.2%16 W · 37 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f67…da0ebacked Ultra Prime24c674.33$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16010133.7%34 W · 67 L-6.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-13.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x03df…1299backed Ultra Prime5c599.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2914626%38 W · 108 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-26.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd88c…8465backed Ultra Prime15c573.91$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88254%1 W · 24 L-4.7wins-0.19per pick23cpaid-88.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed LNG Esports78c556$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.3214650%73 W · 73 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b64…eaf4backed Ultra Prime18c555.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.2816241.4%67 W · 95 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b39…3234backed LNG Esports79c506.33$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.336741.8%28 W · 39 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4440…959abacked Ultra Prime20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009142.9%39 W · 52 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8488…588cbacked Ultra Prime23c500$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1158943.8%39 W · 50 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3934…8352backed LNG Esports78c500$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1101833.3%6 W · 12 L-3.5wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-50%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8efd…67e3backed LNG Esports78c500$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1101258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3301…95bfbacked Ultra Prime7c499.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347736.4%28 W · 49 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf1d…caadbacked Ultra Prime4c480$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209252.2%48 W · 44 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+25.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2226…de06backed Ultra Prime22c445.05$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011331.9%36 W · 77 L-9.2wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-25%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0185…0bd3backed Ultra Prime11c434.96$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8111453.5%61 W · 53 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x20b2…f114backed Ultra Prime23c434.74$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9927535.3%97 W · 178 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Ultra Prime23c417$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.511,15842.6%493 W · 665 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed LNG Esports77c411$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.5322234.7%77 W · 145 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a1e…f550backed LNG Esports79c402.57$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.541656.3%9 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick64cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbec5…8f77backed Ultra Prime23c400$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9222035.9%79 W · 141 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Ultra Prime22c400$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$884744.7%21 W · 26 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ade…e692backed Ultra Prime22c388.54$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.9522654.4%123 W · 103 L+20.9wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+17.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0d29…6da9backed LNG Esports78c384.62$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.6232752.9%173 W · 154 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8034…2463backed LNG Esports78c384.62$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.626864.7%44 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.