CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Butterfly - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xccdfca3d42193ed54d41f0dadbb8b1cce188f8c7a91aac0c632b3140598c066c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Butterflyof 1WIN, Butterfly
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,408
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,187
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,408 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7460…de6ebacked 1WIN | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,589.98 | 439 | 51.7%227 W · 212 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Butterfly | 46c | 2,973$1,372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,601 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…029cbacked 1WIN | 78c | 2,500$1,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,950 | 924 | 56.8%525 W · 399 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Butterfly | 23c | 2,120$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,641.74 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2c50backed Butterfly | 27c | 755.07$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.31 | 721 | 39.7%286 W · 435 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe8…bb28backed Butterfly | 38c | 750.39$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.19 | 220 | 44.5%98 W · 122 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5294…a6b3backed 1WIN | 73c | 681.81$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3881…804ebacked 1WIN | 61c | 474.27$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.23 | 1,496 | 51.5%771 W · 725 L | -7.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…0355backed 1WIN | 28c | 444$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.09 | 233 | 56.2%131 W · 102 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd2…648cbacked 1WIN | 52c | 404.73$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.21 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4339…c6cfbacked 1WIN | 72c | 324.9$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b27…0635backed 1WIN | 28c | 320$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.75 | 317 | 49.5%157 W · 160 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeebb…0b96backed Butterfly | 41c | 257.56$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.06 | 358 | 39.4%141 W · 217 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…9097backed Butterfly | 38c | 244.74$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.74 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Butterfly | 72c | 215.41$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.09 | 3,910 | 36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L | -197.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked 1WIN | 60c | 171.79$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.62 | 2,110 | 47.2%995 W · 1,115 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c81…5518backed Butterfly | 20c | 164.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.29 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Butterfly | 25c | 150$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.05 | 2,214 | 47.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed 1WIN | 70c | 143.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.18 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Butterfly | 66c | 141.54$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.65 | 3,459 | 29.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L | -279.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…048bbacked Butterfly | 22c | 134.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.26 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Butterfly | 22c | 134$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.7 | 3,202 | 45.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L | -79.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…787cbacked Butterfly | 45c | 127.29$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.17 | 752 | 45.3%341 W · 411 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Butterfly | 66c | 121.46$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.12 | 2,473 | 34.6%855 W · 1,618 L | -188.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Butterfly | 50c | 109.4$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.75 | 746 | 53.5%399 W · 347 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked 1WIN | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 723 | 53.5%387 W · 336 L | +28.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Butterfly | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.8 | 3,225 | 51.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L | +88.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74aa…2c3fbacked Butterfly | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Butterfly | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.44 | 4,228 | 49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L | +59.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed 1WIN | 74c | 93.12$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.09 | 610 | 54.9%335 W · 275 L | +10.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x499f…b72bbacked Butterfly | 29c | 89.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.67 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Butterfly | 50c | 88.65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 418 | 53.6%224 W · 194 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked 1WIN | 79c | 62.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.38 | 2,221 | 41.3%917 W · 1,304 L | -22.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked 1WIN | 59c | 59.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9a…73fabacked Butterfly | 55c | 52.32$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 393 | 53.2%209 W · 184 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Butterfly | 43c | 46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.19 | 514 | 46.9%241 W · 273 L | -22.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…f2e5backed Butterfly | 50c | 43.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 241 | 52.3%126 W · 115 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0063…2dd2backed Butterfly | 48c | 31.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 402 | 64.7%260 W · 142 L | +49.2wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Butterfly | 47c | 24.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1,315 | 51.1%672 W · 643 L | -99.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…a81dbacked 1WIN | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 271 | 50.6%137 W · 134 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…a146backed 1WIN | 76c | 16.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Butterfly - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Butterfly (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #5 PlayoffsButterfly won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.