Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcce0e117c074e71f3a29243f4a06bf3fb39587271e21cae4f8c08862994e8e26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,896
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,417
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,896 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 38c | 497.35$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.07 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 10c | 208.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 167.24$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.22 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 33c | 141.25$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 35c | 123.7$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.25 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x902f…f01dbacked No | 63c | 97.42$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 22c | 93.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 90.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 29c | 85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1c…5b1cbacked No | 78c | 72.47$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64da…2292backed Yes | 25c | 72.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77db…af03backed No | 69c | 71.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 41 | 78%32 W · 9 L | +6.0wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 30c | 67.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 30c | 64.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ce…7f30backed No | 61c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 58.58$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x525e…c58fbacked No | 58c | 48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 29c | 47.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7153…3b55backed Yes | 42c | 47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 44.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 43.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 40c | 39.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4482…d2d1backed Yes | 42c | 37.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +120.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9a…5e9fbacked No | 58c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3add…899cbacked Yes | 34c | 34.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…f673backed No | 79c | 30.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…86babacked No | 58c | 30.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d52…ebb2backed Yes | 42c | 28.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0da2…eef1backed No | 58c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +139.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad00…c409backed Yes | 42c | 26.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 40c | 25.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 59c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac81…a61cbacked No | 58c | 24.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f53…680bbacked Yes | 42c | 24.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…d2acbacked No | 64c | 21.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf87…d6eabacked No | 74c | 21.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed No | 68c | 20.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0479…8cbbbacked No | 79c | 20.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…be31backed No | 69c | 19.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 70c | 15.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on April 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C or below on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on April 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 46°C on April 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.