World Politics · resolved market
Labour wins 40-45% of votes?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcce57ee1f55f9b6b25dbffb6a9845e55b5058456dddcd695d4864b98471c95fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,284
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,793
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,284 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e5a…4ef5backed Yes | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -62%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 42c | 400$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.7 | 120 | 56.7%68 W · 52 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked No | 55c | 283.04$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.89 | 92 | 37%34 W · 58 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…732bbacked Yes | 43c | 250$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce08…28bdbacked Yes | 44c | 211$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.84 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 56c | 111$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.84 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 48c | 107.08$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 102 | 33.3%34 W · 68 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce82…801bbacked Yes | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…8eb9backed Yes | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1240…a67cbacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb623…d92cbacked Yes | 50c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…0213backed Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -28%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4948…2e02backed Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf78…7723backed Yes | 48c | 31.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Labour wins 40-45% of votes?this page
- Labour wins 30-35% of votes?Yes won
- Labour wins 35-40% of votes?No won
- Labour wins 45-50% of votes?No won
- Labour wins <30% of votes?No won
- Labour wins >50% of votes?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.