World Politics · resolved market
Labour wins 35-40% of votes?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe355461fcdddcfad31b6126280428cea94ead7367ba0d7a0ae474ac41895be7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,269
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,328
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,269 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc2d5…2884backed Yes | 16c | 2,160$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.6 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +222.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked Yes | 15c | 1,651$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.14 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…4ef5backed Yes | 14c | 1,022$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.08 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -62%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce08…28bdbacked Yes | 18c | 821.63$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 18c | 727$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.56 | 92 | 37%34 W · 58 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc831…9973backed Yes | 19c | 389.31$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.97 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 34c | 340$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.4 | 120 | 56.7%68 W · 52 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 73c | 111$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…732bbacked No | 56c | 49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Labour wins 35-40% of votes?this page
- Labour wins 30-35% of votes?Yes won
- Labour wins 40-45% of votes?No won
- Labour wins 45-50% of votes?No won
- Labour wins <30% of votes?No won
- Labour wins >50% of votes?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.