Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the June 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcce7f7e890d80d92dac5e1b34416d34f642351958e6dec0da758afd88d356000
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,400
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,301
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,400 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 54c | 2,314$1,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,054.94 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.28per pick | 36cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bb…4282backed No | 52c | 1,581$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes | 46c | 1,446$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.64 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe11a…c40bbacked Yes | 46c | 1,443$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.07 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…5ffdbacked Yes | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 49cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 52c | 961$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.22 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +182.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc286…e86ebacked Yes | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed No | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 51c | 279.34$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.53 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32fd…5c8bbacked No | 53c | 254$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.56 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe76…8bb7backed Yes | 46c | 240$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 33cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x961b…2b00backed Yes | 47c | 154.35$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x130d…3205backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94ce…edf2backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a70…1739backed Yes | 47c | 87.83$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8872…5f19backed Yes | 70c | 71.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 63c | 64.19$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…47c5backed Yes | 41c | 41.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5073…16a7backed Yes | 51c | 39.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 45c | 30.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 56c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the June 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?this page
- Will the June 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?No won
- Will the June 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?Yes won
- Will the June 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%?No won
- Will the June 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.