Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd0fd99ebcc7124e0a95c67be85de892e467048798a06c944660e8bbafd4d954
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,982
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,905
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,982 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 41c | 308.74$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.03 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 24c | 213.45$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.52 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 44c | 177.02$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.91 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 154.07$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.73 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 10c | 147.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 41c | 100.96$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 47c | 100.8$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.94 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked No | 53c | 99.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 47c | 99.68$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 63c | 97.09$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.57 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 51c | 97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.33 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 43c | 95$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 49c | 91.6$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 44c | 91.53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.88 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 54c | 82.44$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.89 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 60c | 75.4$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 53c | 66.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 53c | 64.92$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.51 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 56c | 61$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x599c…e29bbacked Yes | 45c | 56.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 56c | 56.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 44c | 55.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.34 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes | 36c | 51.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 49c | 51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed No | 66c | 49.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 43c | 49.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 47c | 46.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 45c | 44.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 45c | 43.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 55c | 41.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 71c | 41.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 44c | 39.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 34.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 39c | 34.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0792…229fbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…9a4ebacked No | 69c | 29.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f1…65debacked Yes | 44c | 27.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 67c | 25.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3564…c4cebacked No | 55c | 23.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 20.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 54c | 19.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 52c | 19.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 53c | 18.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 69c | 17.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on July 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.