Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7443ff0cb933443ef0be140b411d0dedef3a916253b198ee15bca122995a2918
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,539
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,332
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,539 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 3c | 666.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 2c | 546.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 31c | 506.88$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.22 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 79c | 204.44$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.51 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x599c…e29bbacked Yes | 22c | 199.75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.66 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 72c | 186.54$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.79 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 55c | 185.68$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.8 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 180.52$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.69 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 71c | 168.31$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.22 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 23c | 161.3$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.1 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 72c | 160.71$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.71 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 160.71$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.71 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 70c | 156.2$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.34 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 23c | 156.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 20c | 149.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.64 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 72c | 140.54$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.19 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1c…d5ebbacked No | 75c | 133.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 44c | 122.17$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.54 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74d5…195bbacked Yes | 18c | 121.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.78 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 72c | 112.15$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 46c | 110$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.6 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 79c | 96.45$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.2 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed Yes | 36c | 95.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.92 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 73c | 89.33$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.63 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 15c | 89.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 43c | 87.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 21c | 87.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.67 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 46c | 87.67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.61 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 14c | 86.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 76.71$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 27c | 74.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.67 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 47c | 70.34$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f2…9bf5backed Yes | 23c | 68.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.52 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 23c | 58.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 53.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 51.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 51c | 50.6$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 79c | 45.69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 72c | 44.48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…df0fbacked No | 80c | 43.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 102 | 65.7%67 W · 35 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 42c | 42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.41 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 65c | 38.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 36.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 62c | 36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 36c | 35.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 69c | 31.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa110…dc18backed No | 70c | 28.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 74c | 27.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…c336backed Yes | 54c | 25.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 68c | 25.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3b…0a43backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefc…58febacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 70c | 17.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 70c | 17.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.