Fifa International · resolved market
Will the match between Spain and Switzerland end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd28376a84012d74e8726591785810a48db7c731ac515e0e28d458bb21fd2b37
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,881
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,175
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,881 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked Yes | 18c | 2,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Yes | 74c | 721.27$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.72 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x362d…8cb0backed Yes | 17c | 555.35$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 63c | 521.39$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.11 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 26c | 277.66$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.52 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Yes | 75c | 268.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.24 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…72f9backed No | 24c | 209.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +111%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc3…a71fbacked Yes | 80c | 134.08$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a00…4aeebacked No | 27c | 128.23$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +271.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd401…963bbacked No | 42c | 74.68$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb25…6617backed Yes | 45c | 68.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b61…78e8backed No | 18c | 64.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +139.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb426…b988backed No | 24c | 64.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b04…0df2backed Yes | 45c | 56.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 79c | 47.62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…71e4backed Yes | 79c | 44.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d33…54d4backed No | 37c | 41.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 69c | 40.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c2…90d9backed No | 33c | 37.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…0220backed Yes | 58c | 28.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the match between Spain and Switzerland end in a draw?this page
- Will Spain beat Switzerland?Yes won
- Will Switzerland beat Spain?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.