Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Arkansas State Red Wolves (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd29f6769779bb262d52538ee39157f71947b03ad089458730c8cf26da4f28af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- James Madison Dukesof Arkansas State Red Wolves, James Madison Dukes
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $569
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $583
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $569 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x699c…3600backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 47c | 181$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.07 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bea…6ce6backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 47c | 110$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed James Madison Dukes | 48c | 87$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.24 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 49c | 73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.77 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked James Madison Dukes | 51c | 73$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.77 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed James Madison Dukes | 47c | 69$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.57 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x608b…6e88backed James Madison Dukes | 53c | 47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc856…0aa5backed James Madison Dukes | 53c | 47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d9…6febbacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 53c | 44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2877…dc5bbacked James Madison Dukes | 53c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…bdfcbacked James Madison Dukes | 53c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…a8edbacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 52c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb717…a67fbacked James Madison Dukes | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bd…0da6backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 52c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +5.5wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +31%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0068…d7b0backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5192backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 52c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e8…441fbacked James Madison Dukes | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x888b…8f3fbacked James Madison Dukes | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arkansas State Red Wolves (-9.5)this page
- James Madison Dukes vs. Arkansas State Red WolvesJames Madison Dukes won
- James Madison Dukes vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves: O/U 160.5Under won
- Spread: Arkansas State Red Wolves (-8.5)James Madison Dukes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.