Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
James Madison Dukes vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95556ce0abe45ea001ff34d762f6989fb73226da5d6218d6500b69a8183340f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- James Madison Dukesof James Madison Dukes, Arkansas State Red Wolves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,818
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,980
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,818 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 66c | 1,603$1,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,063.08 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ae…f107backed James Madison Dukes | 21c | 1,262$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$995.27 | 423 | 27.2%115 W · 308 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 79c | 1,011$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.44 | 556 | 57.4%319 W · 237 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…eeaebacked James Madison Dukes | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.21 | 1,227 | 27.8%341 W · 886 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 77c | 605.24$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.53 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24d8…e8a8backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 77c | 560.5$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.14 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 67c | 521.09$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.2 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 73c | 395.73$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.44 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked James Madison Dukes | 30c | 373$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.43 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 65c | 331.15$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.96 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed James Madison Dukes | 49c | 304.18$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.18 | 126 | 42.1%53 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 7c | 299.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 160 | 8.1%13 W · 147 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked James Madison Dukes | 45c | 244$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.54 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2977…6efcbacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 26c | 232.03$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.74 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed James Madison Dukes | 21c | 222$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.87 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked James Madison Dukes | 40c | 219.42$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.35 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed James Madison Dukes | 18c | 217$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.94 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf37c…3c74backed James Madison Dukes | 22c | 210.21$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.35 | 218 | 30.7%67 W · 151 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x641f…942bbacked James Madison Dukes | 56c | 206.99$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.51 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked James Madison Dukes | 20c | 157$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.6 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 57c | 109.79$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.9 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed James Madison Dukes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 643 | 22.9%147 W · 496 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked James Madison Dukes | 18c | 91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.62 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 80c | 87$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…90f8backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 43c | 70.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 192 | 37%71 W · 121 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked James Madison Dukes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9569…27fdbacked James Madison Dukes | 31c | 59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.81 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +5.1wins | +0.30per pick | 53cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…24adbacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 80c | 44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 51c | 38.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 235 | 44.7%105 W · 130 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked James Madison Dukes | 31c | 37.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 94 | 12.8%12 W · 82 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd84f…0475backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 80c | 29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf702…7cc8backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 52c | 26.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 175 | 44%77 W · 98 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2734…22efbacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ee…f2d4backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 80c | 23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 614 | 46.1%283 W · 331 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fba…dc55backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 80c | 16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb694…023ebacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 80c | 13.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- James Madison Dukes vs. Arkansas State Red Wolvesthis page
- James Madison Dukes vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves: O/U 160.5Under won
- Spread: Arkansas State Red Wolves (-8.5)James Madison Dukes won
- Spread: Arkansas State Red Wolves (-9.5)James Madison Dukes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.