Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Arkansas State Red Wolves (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcda6bfcab2bcb1fbad9e1e6d7bd0e723a403d23a02e31924a52861742788c8eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- James Madison Dukesof Arkansas State Red Wolves, James Madison Dukes
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,210
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,255
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,210 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x27ed…57ebbacked James Madison Dukes | 44c | 180$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed James Madison Dukes | 44c | 175$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed James Madison Dukes | 47c | 147$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.91 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48a9…0d53backed James Madison Dukes | 47c | 83$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.99 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc07…e9f2backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +6.3wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +32%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6191…e505backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 56c | 48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1b…854dbacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 53c | 48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -5.5wins | -0.22per pick | 54cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa60c…b395backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 56c | 43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6098…d746backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 56c | 34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…ca38backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 56c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5f…b793backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 56c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfacf…e97abacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 56c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d10…e17cbacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 56c | 29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3cce…ebfebacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 53c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…1ed1backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 53c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2348…9d10backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 53c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51e5…9fcabacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb717…a67fbacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd67a…304cbacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 56c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arkansas State Red Wolves (-8.5)this page
- James Madison Dukes vs. Arkansas State Red WolvesJames Madison Dukes won
- James Madison Dukes vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves: O/U 160.5Under won
- Spread: Arkansas State Red Wolves (-9.5)James Madison Dukes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.