Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will FC Lorient vs. Olympique Lyonnais end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd66d65ad96d55d136bec5f3297b2e9bdcd4deffadc055c415c407153cecb3f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,298
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,561
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,298 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Yes | 28c | 3,571$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.9 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 72c | 2,785$2,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.59 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 17c | 2,609$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.23 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 78c | 1,605$1,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.49 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0353…c2ffbacked Yes | 29c | 1,500$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,426$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.9 | 260 | 40.4%105 W · 155 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73c9…9b67backed Yes | 18c | 1,302$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 71c | 787.99$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.52 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +16.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 11c | 730$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 202 | 32.7%66 W · 136 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 11c | 679.4$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.81 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9776…fc56backed Yes | 23c | 651.26$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 29c | 516$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.64 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…ec91backed No | 72c | 400$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfba…9398backed No | 72c | 358.33$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 74c | 252.95$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.24 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…958dbacked Yes | 17c | 193$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.81 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked No | 80c | 179.29$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 27c | 178.47$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.19 | 173 | 29.5%51 W · 122 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x303b…53cabacked Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9de2…3adbbacked No | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6334…ddf4backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…0adbbacked No | 72c | 99.82$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 70 | 68.6%48 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Yes | 20c | 68.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 23c | 67.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a44…d80abacked No | 72c | 37.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked No | 72c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9f…0852backed No | 73c | 28.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 75cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 105 | 56.2%59 W · 46 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 69c | 19.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 284 | 48.2%137 W · 147 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed No | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Lorient vs. Olympique Lyonnais end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Lorient win on 2025-12-07?Yes won
- Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-12-07?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.