Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will FC Lorient win on 2025-12-07?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e596bddd941f692c61c8cd96d389a05febf3fd9d29ccf2992e7cf48d632d5ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,334
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,643
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,334 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 26c | 5,632$1,457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,456.51 | 376 | 38.8%146 W · 230 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 16c | 3,293$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.95 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 14c | 1,901$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.56 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 17c | 1,890$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.87 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x185c…9fedbacked No | 11c | 1,196$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…f37fbacked No | 75c | 908$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 27c | 904.27$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.27 | 232 | 50.9%118 W · 114 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 35c | 825.05$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.35 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 27c | 678.91$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.46 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +16.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Yes | 25c | 668.29$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.53 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 57c | 607.54$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.24 | 202 | 32.7%66 W · 136 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 74c | 561.54$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.54 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked No | 16c | 431.25$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 74c | 400$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 11c | 372.32$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 260 | 40.4%105 W · 155 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b83…8223backed Yes | 59c | 343.98$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.98 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Yes | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 75c | 213.46$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.11 | 284 | 48.2%137 W · 147 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…3964backed No | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 74c | 183.58$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.85 | 143 | 46.9%67 W · 76 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x039a…b09dbacked Yes | 26c | 153.85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.85 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…0adbbacked Yes | 25c | 141$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.75 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 25c | 129.93$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.19 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed Yes | 26c | 127.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.51 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31dd…3c7abacked No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 310 | 49.4%153 W · 157 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 27c | 74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.02 | 229 | 27.5%63 W · 166 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 29c | 72.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.58 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +6.3wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed No | 54c | 62.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes | 46c | 62.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed No | 75c | 52.44$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68ec…a49dbacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a23…97a7backed Yes | 27c | 44.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.32 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4522…ff26backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 27c | 38.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 231 | 51.5%119 W · 112 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55be…a73abacked No | 76c | 38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd7…5403backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…82d7backed Yes | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Lorient win on 2025-12-07?this page
- Will FC Lorient vs. Olympique Lyonnais end in a draw?No won
- Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-12-07?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.