Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd8b7fb9262ba1da74090ee615fc73702ea3f6ed579e295cf7700bb125bcc22e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,922
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,561
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,922 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd2c0…db21backed No | 10c | 514.4$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked No | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 8c | 293.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf1…a4cdbacked No | 70c | 183.6$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.09 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fa…047dbacked Yes | 75c | 174.97$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.84 | 94 | 28.7%27 W · 67 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed Yes | 15c | 155.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.19 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 71c | 143.73$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes | 15c | 126.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.56 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 34c | 125.82$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.68 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ab…6938backed No | 20c | 114.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 29c | 96.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 48c | 88.11$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.26 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9c…d0cfbacked No | 28c | 88.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 52c | 79.08$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.97 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 34c | 69.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.23 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 70c | 66.55$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 63c | 59.71$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef6a…18e8backed No | 80c | 43.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51a8…5e50backed Yes | 60c | 38.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…3bf4backed No | 55c | 37.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 29c | 34.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 64c | 31.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…8f62backed No | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8712…962fbacked Yes | 41c | 29.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce96…d2f1backed Yes | 52c | 27.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 78c | 23.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on April 15?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 12°C on April 15?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on April 15?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on April 15?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on April 15?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 15?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C or higher on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.