Asian League · resolved market
Will Tōkyō Verdy win on 2026-04-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd8b82062c95f1a3e9867ec70501427b29dad11964eb2b876f532f11b6567472
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,216
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,876
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,216 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 27c | 1,684$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.63 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Yes | 35c | 1,436$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.64 | 189 | 52.9%100 W · 89 L | +10.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 18c | 1,241$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.26 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 22c | 820.8$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.4 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebf…e1cabacked Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 22c | 417.01$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.97 | 490 | 44.3%217 W · 273 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6d…3070backed No | 53c | 412.54$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.94 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 4c | 345.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 64c | 290.12$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.21 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 34c | 253$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.02 | 233 | 47.6%111 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 66c | 253$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.02 | 191 | 58.6%112 W · 79 L | +19.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8900…a444backed No | 66c | 185.49$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.8 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked No | 69c | 159.82$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.27 | 153 | 58.8%90 W · 63 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed No | 69c | 156.62$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.22 | 163 | 56.4%92 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked No | 68c | 155.89$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.24 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked No | 68c | 141.97$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.28 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56e0…1a3bbacked Yes | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a47…76dcbacked Yes | 38c | 135.74$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 15c | 135.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40c…1734backed Yes | 17c | 114.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked No | 68c | 110.2$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.72 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked No | 68c | 109.87$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.72 | 56 | 67.9%38 W · 18 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8584…6b7dbacked No | 65c | 103.89$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.58 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dec…3302backed Yes | 38c | 100.13$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94d4…18f9backed No | 63c | 93.73$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a53…074abacked No | 63c | 91.08$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8a…02acbacked No | 63c | 91.08$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…cbcdbacked No | 63c | 88.75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.79 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…e772backed No | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce06…c99dbacked No | 63c | 77.14$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.54 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed No | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 211 | 44.5%94 W · 117 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed No | 76c | 70.42$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 116 | 54.3%63 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed No | 75c | 69.29$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 140 | 58.6%82 W · 58 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked No | 75c | 69.29$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 98 | 59.2%58 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed No | 76c | 67.29$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 145 | 57.2%83 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed No | 76c | 66.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked No | 75c | 66.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…f31bbacked No | 75c | 61.57$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Yes | 24c | 57.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 79c | 56.02$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Yes | 25c | 48.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 28c | 37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 721 | 44.1%318 W · 403 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Yes | 33c | 30.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb752…aea9backed No | 79c | 26.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb277…c7eebacked No | 73c | 15.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tōkyō Verdy win on 2026-04-04?this page
- Will JEF United Ichihara Chiba vs. Tōkyō Verdy end in a draw?No won
- Will JEF United Ichihara Chiba win on 2026-04-04?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.