Asian League · resolved market
Will JEF United Ichihara Chiba win on 2026-04-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6bd536c011660703982f2ae167e8c00f0f4fab1a9194c398b741748c90aa458
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,095
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,490
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,095 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 60c | 579.95$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.36 | 490 | 44.3%217 W · 273 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 67c | 515.44$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.69 | 626 | 52.6%329 W · 297 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 35c | 320$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.38 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 66c | 300$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 76c | 189.22$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.74 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 39c | 187.04$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.2 | 5,963 | 46%2,744 W · 3,219 L | +46.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 9c | 173.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 76c | 172.67$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.06 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed No | 28c | 171$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.88 | 189 | 52.9%100 W · 89 L | +10.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 77c | 115$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 1,126 | 46.3%521 W · 605 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Yes | 66c | 113.18$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.74 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +3.6wins | +0.30per pick | 61cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 72c | 80.96$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 488 | 67.8%331 W · 157 L | +68.5wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…2c24backed No | 31c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -44%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 52c | 71.66$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Yes | 72c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 63c | 70$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 191 | 58.6%112 W · 79 L | +19.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x11d1…0b41backed Yes | 32c | 62.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.66 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.38per pick | 50cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 31c | 53.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x069b…e8afbacked Yes | 38c | 52.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe129…fef1backed Yes | 38c | 50.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 233 | 47.6%111 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 55c | 47.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 1,319 | 56.7%748 W · 571 L | +64.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…82d7backed Yes | 35c | 44.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…bbf0backed Yes | 32c | 44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Yes | 56c | 34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 133 | 49.6%66 W · 67 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked No | 65c | 33.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…c707backed No | 64c | 31.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked No | 63c | 31.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 56 | 67.9%38 W · 18 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed No | 62c | 31.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce06…c99dbacked No | 66c | 27.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 67c | 26.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 531 | 48.8%259 W · 272 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de5…1139backed Yes | 71c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,991 | 54.1%1,078 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a05…8573backed Yes | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will JEF United Ichihara Chiba win on 2026-04-04?this page
- Will JEF United Ichihara Chiba vs. Tōkyō Verdy end in a draw?No won
- Will Tōkyō Verdy win on 2026-04-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.