Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Marozsan (-1.5) vs Agut (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd8e39e16811463f537cd31350bf8cb5f1e1ee8d0039cce791acf04ecaaa3813
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Agutof Marozsan, Agut
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,903
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,903 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ed9…9949backed Agut | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.45 | 465 | 53.8%250 W · 215 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Marozsan | 57c | 440.54$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Agut | 44c | 436.95$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.68 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb672…456fbacked Marozsan | 41c | 242.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Agut | 58c | 223.99$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.14 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Marozsan | 42c | 181.52$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.1 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95da…a2acbacked Marozsan | 63c | 180$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 65cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Agut | 50c | 164$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.24 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Marozsan | 49c | 153.08$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.16 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1248…8db1backed Marozsan | 49c | 140$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 255 | 46.3%118 W · 137 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c8…68d7backed Marozsan | 39c | 128.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 157 | 42%66 W · 91 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Marozsan | 39c | 112$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 246 | 34.1%84 W · 162 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…0d03backed Marozsan | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 166 | 57.8%96 W · 70 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Agut | 44c | 88$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.28 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Agut | 45c | 62.71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Agut | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 220 | 39.1%86 W · 134 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…37f6backed Marozsan | 55c | 45.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a7…b64dbacked Marozsan | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 108 | 63.9%69 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Agut | 41c | 33.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Marozsan (-1.5) vs Agut (+1.5)this page
- BNP Paribas Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Roberto Bautista AgutRoberto Bautista Agut won
- Set 1 Winner: Marozsan vs AgutAgut won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.