Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 68°F or higher on May 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcdc74f0336057f931bfd32cabe19dd80eaea3c9677fa7a108fecff8f162d1a25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,857
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,123
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,857 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 15c | 132.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 16c | 119.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 10c | 117.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 13c | 99.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 20c | 99.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8327…577dbacked No | 22c | 93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 15c | 91.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 16c | 76.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 67c | 74.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 56c | 70.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.86 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 26c | 64.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes | 68c | 50.2$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 92 | 70.7%65 W · 27 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 61c | 47.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 32c | 46.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed Yes | 43c | 45.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 74c | 44.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 42c | 39.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 30c | 38.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…4d70backed Yes | 60c | 34.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 35c | 32.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 71c | 32.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 78c | 31.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 76c | 29.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 56c | 28.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed Yes | 76c | 28.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 72c | 27.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf6…24f9backed Yes | 74c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked Yes | 59c | 20.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2921…1706backed Yes | 67c | 20.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 54c | 19.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 72c | 19.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c6…94a2backed Yes | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 68°F or higher on May 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on May 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.