MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcddca76fc2e6d4f213ecc8a2ab93f526d192a6a70b8be6e6d0fb480388a4c44d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Colorado Rockiesof Milwaukee Brewers, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,136
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,003
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,136 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 27c | 946$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.45 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Colorado Rockies | 76c | 940.62$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.92 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 487.8$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Colorado Rockies | 59c | 338.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.84 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 301.78$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.52 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Colorado Rockies | 59c | 149.16$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.16 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Milwaukee Brewers | 32c | 119$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Colorado Rockies | 65c | 99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Colorado Rockies | 69c | 98$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Milwaukee Brewers | 28c | 88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Colorado Rockies | 15c | 68.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.88 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Colorado Rockies | 61c | 55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Colorado Rockies | 44c | 48.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.38 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c6…eeb6backed Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 41.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 159 | 42.8%68 W · 91 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Colorado Rockies | 44c | 34.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Milwaukee Brewers | 56c | 27.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Colorado Rockies | 55c | 21.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado RockiesMilwaukee Brewers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 4.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 7.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 8.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.