MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31e6914a20b55cebcf9a1898bffe167df3d1148c9590064dffbbdac13874e3d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,990
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,406
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,990 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e29…5777backed Under | 3c | 8,894$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.88 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +363.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 34c | 5,594$1,930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,663.82 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 66c | 5,291$3,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,485.38 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8963…c780backed Under | 4c | 3,750$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 5cpaid | +288.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…0574backed Under | 4c | 2,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 75 | 6.7%5 W · 70 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d9…6ae6backed Under | 4c | 2,500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2887…a552backed Under | 4c | 2,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 5cpaid | +120.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 38c | 494.82$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.49 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 61c | 414.48$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.57 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 47c | 394.74$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.68 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 57c | 173.66$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.51 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 53c | 160.67$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.32 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 58c | 114.12$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.72 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0f…b9d0backed Under | 57c | 107.04$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.01 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 51c | 100.39$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Over | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 211 | 49.3%104 W · 107 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 46c | 90$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.61 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 61c | 81.03$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.43 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x700b…8d0bbacked Under | 66c | 78.77$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 35c | 65.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8255…cba9backed Under | 66c | 62$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 38c | 59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Under | 68c | 51.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 54c | 44.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d76…90a0backed Over | 46c | 44.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Under | 39c | 40.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 56c | 38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 68c | 30.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 46c | 26.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 70c | 21.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed Over | 66c | 20.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…d283backed Under | 66c | 15.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 178 | 42.7%76 W · 102 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18d2…e9c3backed Under | 68c | 15.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 107 | 68.2%73 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae3…93c3backed Under | 68c | 15.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado RockiesMilwaukee Brewers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 4.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 7.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.