Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 70°F or higher on May 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcddd555fd288b6349f79caf919d55ec220c6139773f0d021c3ea76b571e29da0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,572
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,109
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,572 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdafd…2ad4backed No | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 3c | 951.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 3c | 707.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 4c | 621.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 4c | 616.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 8c | 610.27$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.9 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked No | 3c | 499.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 73c | 327.89$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.97 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 67c | 255.4$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.19 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed No | 29c | 235$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.02 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 10c | 206.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 11c | 185.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 69c | 177.01$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.64 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2baa…c5bdbacked No | 9c | 171.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 9c | 145$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 14c | 141.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 9c | 135.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 74c | 124.97$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.11 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 10c | 120.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed No | 10c | 115.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 66c | 79.18$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 34c | 68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9151…a93ebacked No | 28c | 64.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 111 | 64%71 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb93…d52abacked No | 36c | 55.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 35c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 27c | 43.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…4d70backed Yes | 74c | 38.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…dcc7backed No | 30c | 33.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -63%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 72c | 31.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 76c | 19.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 68c | 16.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 70°F or higher on May 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.