Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcdf48ac0a14c89d3a4c3171ba69831456bd56baea0cf2d8a498c6a770d1d539e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,265
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,505
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,265 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked No | 78c | 1,236$964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.61 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…c935backed Yes | 34c | 370$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.55 | 217 | 35%76 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 21c | 362$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.52 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 39c | 272.19$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.89 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 49c | 248.25$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.39 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 59c | 191.09$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.63 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88e0…ceeebacked No | 61c | 162.84$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.09 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 26c | 162$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 64c | 145.04$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.22 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 73c | 131.5$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.61 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 39c | 127.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 100.11$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.53 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 52c | 95.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.53 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 54c | 86.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.58 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 37c | 76.15$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.16 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 73c | 68.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba6d…9128backed No | 58c | 58.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 59c | 57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 54c | 54.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 32c | 53.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.81 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 23c | 52.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 59c | 48.51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed Yes | 40c | 47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b91…0a35backed Yes | 67c | 46.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…5897backed Yes | 48c | 46.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -20.8wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…13d6backed Yes | 32c | 45.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed No | 70c | 45.03$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked No | 35c | 42.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf03b…34fdbacked No | 54c | 39.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 59c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f26…f7f3backed Yes | 69c | 34.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 32c | 32.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f17…9ec2backed Yes | 44c | 32.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 63c | 30.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b846backed Yes | 64c | 30.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 62c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…e538backed Yes | 39c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 69c | 25.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 59c | 23.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x722e…faddbacked No | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 63c | 22.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…f3a4backed No | 70c | 20.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on August 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.