South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Cruzeiro EC vs. EC Vitória end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce3e048640cb7286ecf3406919a0a2ad18aefdca1bcda59c502683565c2dc423
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,739
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,921
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,739 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe726…4c87backed Yes | 24c | 1,775$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.01 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbf…7776backed No | 75c | 1,446$1,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.55 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda70…66b3backed No | 76c | 968.49$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.44 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 25c | 962.34$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.59 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 80c | 828.55$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.91 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 76c | 368.61$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.47 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Yes | 25c | 269.31$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.33 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b14…5301backed Yes | 13c | 200.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2f…c5d0backed No | 76c | 194.53$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.69 | 46 | 76.1%35 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 72cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 22c | 161.46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…8f42backed No | 78c | 159.33$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.05 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 78c | 133.72$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.13 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 76c | 113.87$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 24c | 95.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 20c | 94.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Yes | 25c | 82.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 134 | 51.5%69 W · 65 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed No | 76c | 69.37$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed No | 76c | 64.92$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 99 | 53.5%53 W · 46 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 24c | 53.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 201 | 42.3%85 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 23c | 53.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc4…bd5dbacked Yes | 25c | 49.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 75c | 37.41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02fd…c162backed No | 73c | 33.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 154 | 59.1%91 W · 63 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked No | 79c | 17.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a05…8573backed No | 80c | 16.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.24 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cruzeiro EC vs. EC Vitória end in a draw?this page
- Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-04-01?Yes won
- Will EC Vitória win on 2026-04-01?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.