Asian League · resolved market
Will NEOM SC win on 2026-01-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce5c2c1ccbdaee9009ffe5e9c8191d8bce704def4f42de6241384298ab7cd3fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,680
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,564
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,680 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 13c | 3,522$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.19 | 626 | 52.6%329 W · 297 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e14…2266backed Yes | 19c | 3,170$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.73 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Yes | 35c | 1,999$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.75 | 78 | 37.2%29 W · 49 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…7d73backed No | 69c | 1,504$1,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.54 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae4d…254ebacked No | 70c | 1,300$914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.84 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 17c | 1,147$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.69 | 1,028 | 41.7%429 W · 599 L | -31.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 14c | 851.81$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.12 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed Yes | 14c | 800.21$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.81 | 138 | 21%29 W · 109 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 76c | 797.61$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.77 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012d…9db6backed No | 75c | 795.56$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.56 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4935…4662backed Yes | 12c | 599.97$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 14c | 595.1$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.2 | 239 | 27.2%65 W · 174 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe390…73ffbacked Yes | 6c | 361.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8479…37f8backed Yes | 15c | 334.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.12 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 31cpaid | -90.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…a26fbacked No | 64c | 328.3$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3e…380cbacked No | 67c | 296.76$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.76 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Yes | 14c | 251.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 11c | 237.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 531 | 48.8%259 W · 272 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed No | 72c | 220.35$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.64 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed No | 49c | 199.92$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.2 | 201 | 32.3%65 W · 136 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 14c | 182.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 294 | 25.2%74 W · 220 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c37…6072backed Yes | 60c | 166.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Yes | 31c | 156.26$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.06 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 15c | 149.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 299 | 17.4%52 W · 247 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 75c | 146.9$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf29…1f7dbacked No | 65c | 130.46$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 14c | 120.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 623 | 49.1%306 W · 317 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked No | 65c | 87$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x314c…67dabacked Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 36c | 77.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 770 | 56.2%433 W · 337 L | +40.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed No | 65c | 58.67$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 117 | 42.7%50 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a58…149dbacked No | 78c | 49.77$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6af1…0b91backed No | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked No | 72c | 44.89$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked No | 70c | 32.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 114 | 58.8%67 W · 47 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…8d6dbacked No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x274f…fbf4backed No | 63c | 16.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NEOM SC win on 2026-01-18?this page
- Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-01-18?Yes won
- Will NEOM SC vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.