MLB · resolved market
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce67bb920430d4c0294fcb588d5a32ba288f7cd1f97ee2ac249d3f22206c32f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,614
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,661
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,614 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 80c | 3,617$2,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.67 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 21c | 1,334$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.86 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab4d…3f0bbacked Under | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 53c | 1,064$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 20c | 496.49$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.3 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 79c | 202.73$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.66 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Under | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 416 | 37.5%156 W · 260 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 80c | 155$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 32c | 137.53$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 80c | 122$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 68c | 74.44$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Over | 68c | 63$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 21c | 49.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8f…9166backed Under | 59c | 42.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…b9d8backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 151 | 38.4%58 W · 93 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Over | 80c | 17.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 653 | 59.6%389 W · 264 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…3107backed Over | 70c | 15.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 125 | 72%90 W · 35 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Over | 80c | 12.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.57 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 11.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-4.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-5.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco GiantsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.