TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$26,324
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$38,438

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,324 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xef1b…8697backed No50c12,100$6,039 inWon+$6,060.714042.9%60 W · 80 L+0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Yes50c7,317$3,659 inLost-$3,658.5484049.4%415 W · 425 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadf0…00fbbacked Yes50c2,000$1,000 inLost-$1,00049250.4%248 W · 244 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b62…5cc8backed No50c1,250$625 inWon+$6252065%13 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b66…336abacked Yes50c1,200$600 inLost-$60011652.6%61 W · 55 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes51c1,012$516 inLost-$515.772,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Yes50c770.55$385 inLost-$385.2832152%167 W · 154 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Yes50c770$385 inLost-$38530647.4%145 W · 161 L-10.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Yes50c492$245 inLost-$245.059,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed No50c400$200 inWon+$2006,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Yes51c164$84 inLost-$84.461,85153.1%982 W · 869 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac65…cfe6backed No48c149.18$72 inWon+$77.1813759.1%81 W · 56 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Yes50c118$59 inLost-$5975049.7%373 W · 377 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf941…31ddbacked No51c96.08$49 inWon+$47.083053.3%16 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+8.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes50c61.06$30 inLost-$30.488,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Yes51c50$26 inLost-$25.51,05648.3%510 W · 546 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d10…940abacked Yes50c48.25$24 inLost-$24.131,01447.7%484 W · 530 L-28.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9382…4ee3backed No48c39.23$19 inWon+$20.2311658.6%68 W · 48 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe824…65b4backed Yes53c37.74$20 inLost-$2035240.3%142 W · 210 L-23.5wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x39c6…0ac1backed No51c33$17 inWon+$16.1712350.4%62 W · 61 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed No50c23.82$12 inWon+$121,80453.8%970 W · 834 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca2b…3489backed Yes51c20$10 inLost-$10.229242.5%124 W · 168 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick43cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.