MLB · resolved market
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6800491909c2d8a195e9881e1caaeb6ea967e09258ecbcce266e6f66e673fcf1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $109,177
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $115,756
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $109,177 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09b5…7e72backed Over | 53c | 55,132$29,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,911.83 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 47c | 55,079$25,887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,887.07 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad6…5c81backed Over | 66c | 9,000$5,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,060 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 47c | 8,844$4,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,156.51 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 48c | 8,659$4,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,156.51 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…0ff5backed Over | 51c | 8,330$4,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,072.36 | 119 | 52.9%63 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Over | 53c | 7,279$3,847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,432.39 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Over | 52c | 5,500$2,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,640 | 172 | 48.8%84 W · 88 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 32c | 2,833$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.44 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Over | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…a4c5backed Under | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 48c | 1,888$904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$903.85 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 49c | 1,354$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.7 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 51c | 1,200$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 49c | 1,137$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.01 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 53c | 1,030$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.01 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 47c | 998.39$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.24 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 40c | 972.43$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.95 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 20c | 903.5$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.54 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 49c | 839.88$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.54 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 47c | 699.96$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.45 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 61c | 534.96$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.97 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 38c | 526.31$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 48c | 496.46$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.29 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 49c | 495.53$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.84 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Over | 53c | 471.7$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.7 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Under | 47c | 448.93$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 47c | 404.26$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…67a1backed Over | 53c | 317.55$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.25 | 370 | 52.2%193 W · 177 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 78c | 301$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.78 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 53c | 214.47$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.38 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Over | 53c | 193.39$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.89 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 48c | 171.11$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.82 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Over | 44c | 155.2$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.91 | 295 | 47.1%139 W · 156 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 56c | 150.2$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.11 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Over | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 707 | 44.7%316 W · 391 L | -22.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Under | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f4…1dafbacked Over | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb21…3138backed Over | 53c | 110$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.7 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Under | 48c | 100.38$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.18 | 405 | 54.8%222 W · 183 L | +17.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 53c | 100.1$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.05 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 736 | 53%390 W · 346 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Over | 53c | 91$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.77 | 507 | 48.7%247 W · 260 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Under | 50c | 88$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.05 | 425 | 50.1%213 W · 212 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Under | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7268…78abbacked Under | 25c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 200 | 40%80 W · 120 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8f…9166backed Over | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeec3…6bd2backed Under | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 194 | 47.9%93 W · 101 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb0…20b4backed Over | 26c | 48.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.18 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 49c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dad…4855backed Under | 47c | 44.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 210 | 52.9%111 W · 99 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 39c | 36.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 61c | 31.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c5…6b9abacked Over | 39c | 31.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc50…7fdebacked Over | 53c | 31.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Under | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Over | 53c | 29.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 383 | 52.2%200 W · 183 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 57c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 58c | 28.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 43c | 26.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 47c | 23.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 361 | 57.9%209 W · 152 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 11.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-4.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-5.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco GiantsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.