MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ff285c5602db94c3010ad7598e408fbe332b9b9b69146752dbdd364e4fc9a3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof San Francisco Giants, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,675
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,330
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,675 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7138…8c89backed San Francisco Giants | 35c | 1,414$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$918.57 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Chicago White Sox | 64c | 979.76$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.48 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked San Francisco Giants | 64c | 930.95$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.87 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x242c…286dbacked San Francisco Giants | 35c | 797.47$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.36 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Chicago White Sox | 34c | 500$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Chicago White Sox | 65c | 380$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed San Francisco Giants | 36c | 311.97$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.66 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago White Sox | 36c | 251$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.49 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Francisco Giants | 36c | 195$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.8 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago White Sox | 62c | 157.68$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.4 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Chicago White Sox | 68c | 129.44$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.02 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked San Francisco Giants | 32c | 129.44$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.02 | 295 | 47.1%139 W · 156 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…27f1backed San Francisco Giants | 32c | 125$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Francisco Giants | 58c | 118.76$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.88 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Chicago White Sox | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8f…9166backed Chicago White Sox | 31c | 81.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed San Francisco Giants | 79c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 475 | 89.1%423 W · 52 L | +84.9wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +25%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed San Francisco Giants | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Chicago White Sox | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Chicago White Sox | 34c | 46.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Chicago White Sox | 67c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Chicago White Sox | 47c | 34.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3255…ffb9backed Chicago White Sox | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 180 | 53.9%97 W · 83 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Chicago White Sox | 63c | 21.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed San Francisco Giants | 67c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 11.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-4.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-5.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco GiantsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.