MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce69e80890330d831f25e7a0f5e42be922d41d82996e951a8e6376673b0fb027
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,388
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,371
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,388 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 46c | 564.5$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.67 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 54c | 490.97$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.32 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 37c | 325.16$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 69c | 110.13$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.48 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 57c | 107.44$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 43c | 103.77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.62 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6276…7f2ebacked Under | 66c | 74.21$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Under | 54c | 71.8$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.03 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 40c | 46.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 68c | 41.06$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 62c | 25.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Under | 57c | 23.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Under | 57c | 23.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Under | 57c | 23.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Under | 57c | 23.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Under | 57c | 23.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 221 | 54.3%120 W · 101 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d30…5f85backed Under | 57c | 23.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York YankeesNew York Yankees won
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. New York YankeesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.