Us Politics · resolved market
Trump abolishes the Federal Income Tax in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce7a9509b5ac2cb2b046b4f119ba97e63b35ff056d976a7654f6ac8ea7e3c8f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $202,961
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $290,773
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $202,961 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 5c | 17,000$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$903.45 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd87…494bbacked Yes | 9c | 8,170$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2c…70cfbacked Yes | 8c | 3,755$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1085…2d69backed Yes | 7c | 3,503$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.21 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 5c | 2,755$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.25 | 148 | 19.6%29 W · 119 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x562a…3d9cbacked Yes | 6c | 2,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57dc…a126backed Yes | 8c | 2,254$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.3 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 2,209$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.18 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60eb…a6d8backed Yes | 6c | 1,694$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.85 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 10c | 1,578$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.31 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 3c | 1,478$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.69 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 6c | 1,250$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…6d52backed Yes | 13c | 1,235$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.55 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd54c…515fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,030$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 8c | 993$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.97 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 7c | 885$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.65 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 8c | 876.81$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.14 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6af8…bac0backed Yes | 7c | 800$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -50%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 736.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fec…017ebacked Yes | 7c | 678.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4f…0652backed Yes | 9c | 666.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa416…025ebacked Yes | 7c | 628.57$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a46…bdf4backed Yes | 7c | 600$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 6c | 545$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c12…7765backed Yes | 12c | 425.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd1…cf8dbacked Yes | 9c | 308.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e65…a223backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ba…9f75backed Yes | 9c | 277.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9e…6f90backed Yes | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27f…91d6backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 8c | 153$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x838f…6e3cbacked Yes | 10c | 113.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…ea27backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb94…8a53backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.