Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: San Diego State Aztecs (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce7d350256b41d8c00a078212a55aac6c00765808000de386423738f3478b4c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New Mexico Lobosof San Diego State Aztecs, New Mexico Lobos
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,415
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,415 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked San Diego State Aztecs | 49c | 808.5$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.11 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked New Mexico Lobos | 46c | 763.06$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.67 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f95…6972backed San Diego State Aztecs | 58c | 512.48$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.3 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed San Diego State Aztecs | 52c | 254.29$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.18 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed New Mexico Lobos | 46c | 80.73$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.59 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b91…492ebacked New Mexico Lobos | 56c | 53.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf906…b98ebacked New Mexico Lobos | 56c | 52.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed New Mexico Lobos | 45c | 36.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed San Diego State Aztecs | 52c | 24.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 155 | 51.6%80 W · 75 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed New Mexico Lobos | 61c | 22.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 227 | 56.4%128 W · 99 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed New Mexico Lobos | 61c | 22.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 194 | 54.6%106 W · 88 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x263f…c744backed New Mexico Lobos | 50c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego State Aztecs (-3.5)this page
- New Mexico Lobos vs. San Diego State AztecsSan Diego State Aztecs won
- New Mexico Lobos vs. San Diego State Aztecs: O/U 145.5Under won
- New Mexico Lobos vs. San Diego State Aztecs: O/U 150.5Under won
- Spread: New Mexico Lobos (-1.5)San Diego State Aztecs won
- Spread: San Diego State Aztecs (-1.5)San Diego State Aztecs won
- Spread: San Diego State Aztecs (-2.5)New Mexico Lobos won
- Spread: San Diego State Aztecs (-4.5)New Mexico Lobos won
- Spread: San Diego State Aztecs (-5.5)New Mexico Lobos won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.