Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce876311d8ccaad8b1b5aea79148c01baa14d922a27c4c5945bab4a25b747cc4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Lynxof Team Lynx, Nemiga Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,280
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,269
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,280 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Nemiga Gaming | 37c | 2,248$837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$837.21 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Nemiga Gaming | 32c | 1,919$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.05 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…0f31backed Nemiga Gaming | 34c | 1,888$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.09 | 470 | 46.6%219 W · 251 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Team Lynx | 66c | 1,812$1,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.23 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Nemiga Gaming | 36c | 1,794$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.22 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x249f…fed3backed Team Lynx | 61c | 1,606$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.98 | 626 | 50.5%316 W · 310 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Nemiga Gaming | 39c | 1,172$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.36 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Nemiga Gaming | 38c | 979.6$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.84 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa35c…a113backed Team Lynx | 69c | 905.62$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.55 | 617 | 45.7%282 W · 335 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Nemiga Gaming | 47c | 815.25$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.67 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d8…ba9ebacked Nemiga Gaming | 45c | 605.17$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.33 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…eec6backed Team Lynx | 74c | 600.09$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.99 | 554 | 57.8%320 W · 234 L | +12.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13c7…11d9backed Team Lynx | 63c | 586.72$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.45 | 335 | 41.2%138 W · 197 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ab…eb07backed Nemiga Gaming | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b84…2f73backed Nemiga Gaming | 40c | 486.51$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.75 | 116 | 48.3%56 W · 60 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad09…612cbacked Nemiga Gaming | 46c | 393.74$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.94 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Nemiga Gaming | 24c | 282.91$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.03 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e7…2779backed Team Lynx | 59c | 271.15$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.23 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aab…15c5backed Team Lynx | 75c | 248.47$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.31 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd12d…f0dbbacked Team Lynx | 50c | 241.88$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.41 | 149 | 56.4%84 W · 65 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…8d75backed Team Lynx | 51c | 205.92$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.7 | 242 | 51.7%125 W · 117 L | +21.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbc…62a3backed Team Lynx | 64c | 199.57$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.84 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae10…d0d9backed Nemiga Gaming | 51c | 194.07$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.09 | 173 | 53.2%92 W · 81 L | +8.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa900…5acebacked Team Lynx | 57c | 151$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.28 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Team Lynx | 62c | 149.34$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.26 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9902…34b3backed Nemiga Gaming | 33c | 146.2$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d4c…935ebacked Nemiga Gaming | 25c | 142.3$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -6.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2aad…88d4backed Nemiga Gaming | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 144 | 43.8%63 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…4fa2backed Team Lynx | 52c | 120$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 536 | 34%182 W · 354 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Team Lynx | 53c | 116.58$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.37 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd866…55e0backed Nemiga Gaming | 43c | 112.55$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed Nemiga Gaming | 32c | 98.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 361 | 38.2%138 W · 223 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Nemiga Gaming | 34c | 98.18$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…6dc8backed Team Lynx | 54c | 95$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 480 | 54%259 W · 221 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x127e…cca1backed Nemiga Gaming | 40c | 87.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 461 | 50.8%234 W · 227 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…febfbacked Team Lynx | 57c | 85.46$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 216 | 50.9%110 W · 106 L | -25.3wins | -0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x58ea…538dbacked Nemiga Gaming | 34c | 85.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -8.8wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Nemiga Gaming | 40c | 74.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…77dabacked Nemiga Gaming | 42c | 68.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Team Lynx | 59c | 68.39$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 395 | 59%233 W · 162 L | +18.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Team Lynx | 50c | 54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b6…ad8ebacked Nemiga Gaming | 49c | 51.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Nemiga Gaming | 31c | 51.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Nemiga Gaming | 49c | 49.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 864 | 51.7%447 W · 417 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3e…a78abacked Team Lynx | 62c | 47.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 412 | 44.7%184 W · 228 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c9…217dbacked Team Lynx | 60c | 31.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Nemiga Gaming | 36c | 30.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8027…cf81backed Nemiga Gaming | 48c | 28.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Team Lynx | 73c | 26.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc539…5ec2backed Nemiga Gaming | 43c | 24.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Team Lynx | 62c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b10…9659backed Team Lynx | 77c | 13.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.11 | 494 | 55.1%272 W · 222 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - European Pro League Group ATeam Lynx won
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 WinnerNemiga Gaming won
- Game Handicap: LYNX (-1.5) vs Nemiga Gaming (+1.5)Nemiga Gaming won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.