NHL · resolved market
Spread: Flames (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcebda250a433e4637354f321199a19cd4d5a4e2d6b8fa1e5b0fddbbad95e1f4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Krakenof Flames, Kraken
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,852
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,208
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,852 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Flames | 35c | 333$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.02 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Kraken | 65c | 325.01$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.75 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Flames | 34c | 305.7$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.94 | 360 | 38.6%139 W · 221 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Flames | 34c | 287.36$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.68 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Kraken | 62c | 263.16$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Flames | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 784 | 43.8%343 W · 441 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed Kraken | 66c | 249.99$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Kraken | 55c | 228.91$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.91 | 111 | 62.2%69 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Kraken | 66c | 228.3$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.62 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Flames | 34c | 217$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.78 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Kraken | 64c | 106$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +9.8wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Kraken | 66c | 101$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.53 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Flames | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 210 | 40.5%85 W · 125 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Flames | 35c | 99.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Flames | 35c | 84.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c3…81e3backed Kraken | 63c | 78.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Kraken | 66c | 77.4$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 312 | 57.4%179 W · 133 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Kraken | 64c | 63.16$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Flames | 45c | 49.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x207b…df20backed Flames | 37c | 47.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b5…694ebacked Flames | 36c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 47cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Kraken | 65c | 32.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Kraken | 66c | 24.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa938…3bc3backed Kraken | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Flames (-1.5)this page
- Kraken vs. FlamesKraken won
- Kraken vs. Flames: O/U 5.5Over won
- Kraken vs. Flames: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.