UFC · resolved market
O/U 2.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcef2642229869f867f6d90ef3e4ca8f36ba711da18babbdb4a1b3bd7826f74d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,289
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,445
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,289 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 65c | 735.65$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.44 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87bb…42b0backed Under | 36c | 274.11$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 33c | 92.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c7…5cecbacked Under | 36c | 83.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d3…0698backed Under | 33c | 75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6177…f59dbacked Over | 67c | 74.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4b…c865backed Under | 33c | 72.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16f8…31e9backed Under | 35c | 68.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee11…19a9backed Over | 64c | 46.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed Under | 36c | 46.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 63c | 32.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cea…ad23backed Under | 35c | 31.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7f…dc59backed Over | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Over | 70c | 21.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41d8…7233backed Over | 67c | 19.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +39%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 2.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card)Alexander Volkov won
- Will Alexander Volkov win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Waldo Cortes-Acosta win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.