UFC · resolved market
Will Waldo Cortes-Acosta win by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7df16a3f3d625f269d2961fafea3523413a683d9a1679c530b444c61375dda6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,392
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,453
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,392 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 74c | 2,542$1,884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.59 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5b…d4ecbacked Yes | 25c | 1,000$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.5 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…83e3backed Yes | 26c | 961.54$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 80c | 421.5$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.3 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 76c | 399.67$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 77c | 384.61$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.37 | 385 | 53.2%205 W · 180 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x220f…5476backed Yes | 25c | 346.47$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.56 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x660c…57ddbacked Yes | 20c | 194$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f4a…afd7backed Yes | 26c | 193.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35a7…c4eebacked Yes | 22c | 148.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x517b…be02backed Yes | 25c | 142.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…8d70backed Yes | 24c | 102.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…baddbacked No | 79c | 99.98$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 159 | 60.4%96 W · 63 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…78d1backed Yes | 22c | 97.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe82c…86e1backed Yes | 20c | 94.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d6…8267backed Yes | 23c | 87.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5f…480abacked Yes | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe67…dd7ebacked Yes | 31c | 64.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca0c…b9b6backed No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 73c | 42.7$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff5…2925backed Yes | 24c | 41.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked No | 77c | 33.69$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.24per pick | 63cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed No | 67c | 24.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Waldo Cortes-Acosta win by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card)Alexander Volkov won
- Will Alexander Volkov win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.