CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Aurora Young Blood vs WATERMELON (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf04a4f745b96c952eb7af29ec2ca0e07d28054d025bda47aca0fed99be7afae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- WATERMELONof Aurora Young Blood, WATERMELON
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,081
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,148
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,081 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked WATERMELON | 44c | 2,262$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,270.95 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b37…fcd6backed Aurora Young Blood | 1c | 1,831$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 5cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e25…97f3backed Aurora Young Blood | 43c | 1,178$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.59 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b64…eaf4backed Aurora Young Blood | 43c | 786$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.98 | 134 | 46.3%62 W · 72 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4e…3309backed Aurora Young Blood | 46c | 652.17$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed WATERMELON | 48c | 557.17$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.34 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c75…8c7abacked Aurora Young Blood | 20c | 531.77$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.44 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Aurora Young Blood | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked WATERMELON | 49c | 464.29$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.83 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Aurora Young Blood | 9c | 431.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.22 | 101 | 11.9%12 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7efc…bea6backed Aurora Young Blood | 72c | 420$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.4 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x861f…a189backed Aurora Young Blood | 58c | 372.22$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.89 | 921 | 52.6%484 W · 437 L | +16.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…0acbbacked WATERMELON | 58c | 351.81$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.08 | 149 | 51.7%77 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Aurora Young Blood | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb433…f543backed WATERMELON | 58c | 278.19$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.62 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf38…0912backed Aurora Young Blood | 80c | 250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2249…3005backed Aurora Young Blood | 68c | 221.49$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…9c1ebacked WATERMELON | 13c | 200$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +95%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Aurora Young Blood | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 240 | 38.3%92 W · 148 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2db3…667abacked Aurora Young Blood | 75c | 172.09$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.98 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Aurora Young Blood | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 149 | 50.3%75 W · 74 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…9ac1backed Aurora Young Blood | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 211 | 37.4%79 W · 132 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47cc…5668backed WATERMELON | 33c | 149.03$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb74d…9b2abacked Aurora Young Blood | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa226…5092backed Aurora Young Blood | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdac9…56e7backed Aurora Young Blood | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c22…12c4backed Aurora Young Blood | 49c | 80.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f9…d587backed Aurora Young Blood | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 350 | 33.4%117 W · 233 L | +22.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd53e…e70cbacked WATERMELON | 37c | 59.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.29 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc088…0809backed WATERMELON | 50c | 54.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked WATERMELON | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6644…e9fabacked WATERMELON | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6489…71ebbacked WATERMELON | 32c | 36.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c0…a82cbacked WATERMELON | 35c | 31.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x487e…4136backed Aurora Young Blood | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…a74ebacked Aurora Young Blood | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x308f…e152backed Aurora Young Blood | 79c | 18.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.