CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Grêmio Esports vs Keyd - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf3970e06955b7ce83edb12bb9672db60d92d085a3aa57427cad2b29027f030c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Keydof Grêmio Esports, Keyd
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,992
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,864
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,992 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ebc…a33dbacked Keyd | 72c | 2,466$1,780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.86 | 634 | 57.1%362 W · 272 L | +40.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ca…6a8bbacked Grêmio Esports | 54c | 1,300$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.98 | 755 | 45.6%344 W · 411 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…387ebacked Grêmio Esports | 41c | 617.7$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.62 | 291 | 54%157 W · 134 L | +17.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9307…9da3backed Keyd | 58c | 273.24$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.8 | 1,008 | 69.3%699 W · 309 L | +152.8wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Grêmio Esports | 17c | 219.22$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 3,544 | 29.3%1,037 W · 2,507 L | -289.1wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x54ac…47e6backed Keyd | 56c | 218.45$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.21 | 681 | 72.2%492 W · 189 L | +120.9wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Keyd | 59c | 150.6$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.65 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Grêmio Esports | 19c | 148$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Grêmio Esports | 35c | 127.96$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.37 | 3,949 | 36.5%1,443 W · 2,506 L | -201.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x203a…935fbacked Keyd | 63c | 117.82$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.52 | 298 | 54.7%163 W · 135 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Grêmio Esports | 35c | 106.05$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 4,754 | 43.6%2,071 W · 2,683 L | -85.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Keyd | 69c | 101.54$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 2,223 | 47.5%1,056 W · 1,167 L | -5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Grêmio Esports | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2,530 | 34.6%876 W · 1,654 L | -193.6wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Grêmio Esports | 22c | 93.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 702 | 42.2%296 W · 406 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Keyd | 64c | 91$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.58 | 3,236 | 51.2%1,657 W · 1,579 L | +88.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Keyd | 55c | 85$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.65 | 4,238 | 49.2%2,085 W · 2,153 L | +60.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Grêmio Esports | 17c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 499 | 52.3%261 W · 238 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Keyd | 52c | 77.47$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.86 | 1,377 | 66.4%914 W · 463 L | +77.0wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Keyd | 64c | 70$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 3,267 | 45.5%1,485 W · 1,782 L | -85.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Grêmio Esports | 39c | 50.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 5,034 | 37.2%1,874 W · 3,160 L | -260.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…dbe6backed Keyd | 72c | 34.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 375 | 49.1%184 W · 191 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Grêmio Esports | 53c | 29.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 1,142 | 54.4%621 W · 521 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Keyd | 60c | 25.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 531 | 45.4%241 W · 290 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d15…4a14backed Keyd | 74c | 20.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -4.8wins | -0.27per pick | 54cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Keyd | 52c | 19.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 1,591 | 46.6%741 W · 850 L | +30.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Grêmio Esports vs Keyd - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Grêmio Esports vs Keyd (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Group StageKeyd won
- Counter-Strike: Grêmio Esports vs Keyd - Map 1 WinnerKeyd won
- Map Handicap: Keyd (-1.5) vs Grêmio Esports (+1.5)Keyd won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.