TailMyPicks
Market

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 54-55°F on February 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,158
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,642

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,158 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa37d…b2b4backed No70c1,571$1,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.0532157.3%184 W · 137 L+17.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x391d…2e45backed Yes4c1,061$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.93468.7%4 W · 42 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-88.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa717…faeabacked No72c505.23$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.8431170.7%220 W · 91 L+42.3wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+30.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xedc3…023dbacked Yes25c327.26$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.392470.8%17 W · 7 L+4.6wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+50.1%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes37c299.22$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.3660851.2%311 W · 297 L-24.0wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes28c273.29$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.161,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes25c216.32$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.3298738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc3fa…ad6bbacked Yes26c208.58$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.261931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick33cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x095b…6f34backed Yes27c200.87$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.329447.9%45 W · 49 L+10.7wins+0.11per pick36cpaid+23.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes8c199.96$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes32c181.32$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.591,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes28c172.04$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.328,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x24fe…3419backed Yes28c170.65$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1221235.8%76 W · 136 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes33c155.4$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.552,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a42…8da8backed Yes28c153.19$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1938840.7%158 W · 230 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes36c151.05$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes31c148.2$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.6766543.6%290 W · 375 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc0c2…b14dbacked Yes30c146.84$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.367038.6%27 W · 43 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+14.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes18c143.14$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.763,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes25c141.24$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1364021.7%139 W · 501 L-23.6wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-43.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No63c140.44$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.333,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66a1…3de8backed Yes28c130.76$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.7568521.5%147 W · 538 L+12.8wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0c8…dd57backed Yes35c124.06$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.357835.9%28 W · 50 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-31.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes27c106.23$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6881234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes21c99.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2128737.6%108 W · 179 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46ed…eec2backed No80c95$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.411258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes23c93.08$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes16c92.01$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1722236.5%81 W · 141 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeadd…c095backed Yes44c77.12$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes30c63.65$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xf41a…606bbacked Yes29c59.47$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.25633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-52.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No68c59.43$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2591967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fbc…4105backed Yes29c57.61$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6233726.4%89 W · 248 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes33c55.93$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3934219.9%68 W · 274 L+18.6wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e70…50ebbacked No65c55$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.0531567%211 W · 104 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No71c54.93$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.077,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4968…cda7backed Yes46c54.68$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.295147.1%24 W · 27 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xccb7…f314backed Yes26c54.5$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4430%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes30c51.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.327,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xd084…27eabacked Yes28c46.73$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.062339.1%9 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72a9…44d3backed Yes29c46.65$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb05c…f02fbacked Yes42c44.38$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.751566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+31%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xade1…9040backed Yes30c41.51$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.633839.9%135 W · 203 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x252b…dfc9backed No75c40.04$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.096144.3%27 W · 34 L-4.8wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-20.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x65f9…1b7cbacked Yes30c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127855.1%43 W · 35 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94e6…0a73backed Yes29c39.88$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.417841%32 W · 46 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes46c38$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3329642.9%127 W · 169 L+19.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2205…8089backed No75c33.33$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.3329056.2%163 W · 127 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a35…6387backed Yes59c31.66$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.565928.8%17 W · 42 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f87…9120backed Yes37c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.11533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2155…3428backed Yes40c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1318845.2%85 W · 103 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No69c29$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.9970770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef5e…82fabacked No77c25.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.97450%2 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-36.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x39b7…675cbacked No60c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102356.5%13 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2cc0…b5f2backed No73c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.813360.9%81 W · 52 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No54c22$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.124,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c82…9728backed No60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86100%6 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+39.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe311…a16fbacked No78c19.3$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.342653.8%14 W · 12 L-2.9wins-0.11per pick65cpaid-18.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3d2b…815abacked No74c17$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.510264.7%66 W · 36 L+0.2wins0.00per pick65cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b6c…8387backed No75c15.58$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.93333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-55.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeea9…3a27backed No74c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.91258.3%7 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick71cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed No68c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.835843.9%157 W · 201 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a2d…2debbacked No77c14$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.291127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-60.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.