MLB · resolved market
Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf4db68cd3ad00ad483fc780a67d29bbed6b724178963d5a6203e8efa4f40541
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,913
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,623
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,913 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6498…8910backed Under | 65c | 15,271$9,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,410.39 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 35c | 8,622$3,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,019.34 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…a4c5backed Over | 36c | 5,020$1,807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,807.18 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 54c | 572.93$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.55 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 36c | 500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Over | 38c | 481.15$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.93 | 194 | 42.3%82 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 40c | 340.19$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.22 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x473e…c0f6backed Over | 35c | 244.87$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.46 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 61c | 233$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.47 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Over | 46c | 218.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce8…fc49backed Over | 37c | 202.7$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Under | 56c | 194.05$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.05 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Over | 46c | 163.04$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Under | 56c | 162.92$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.45 | 841 | 40.2%338 W · 503 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fe…6a33backed Over | 25c | 112.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc02a…b43fbacked Over | 46c | 110$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 64c | 106.38$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 33c | 90.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 34c | 83.21$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Under | 55c | 72.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.54 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 44c | 67.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55a3…fd93backed Under | 72c | 65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 46c | 65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Over | 16c | 63.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Under | 71c | 60.15$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 273 | 54.6%149 W · 124 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 44c | 44.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Over | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb988…f50fbacked Over | 37c | 39.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1edb…a60bbacked Under | 62c | 38.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 55c | 37.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c38…291fbacked Under | 66c | 37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41a9…323abacked Under | 64c | 31.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Over | 36c | 29.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 61c | 22.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Under | 63c | 16.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 208 | 52.9%110 W · 98 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego PadresChicago White Sox won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 3.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 4.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.