MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea85de237b97e19454a2a0996e98b62122f16379035c4e21d954dbe431e2addc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago White Soxof San Diego Padres, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,118
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,294
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,118 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed Chicago White Sox | 57c | 3,503$1,993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,509.56 | 311 | 49.2%153 W · 158 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Chicago White Sox | 57c | 2,800$1,582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,217.98 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed San Diego Padres | 43c | 2,624$1,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,128.27 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed San Diego Padres | 43c | 2,007$863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.15 | 321 | 52%167 W · 154 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Chicago White Sox | 57c | 580.77$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.94 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed San Diego Padres | 44c | 568.18$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2513…91fbbacked San Diego Padres | 45c | 539.76$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.64 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45dd…7b56backed San Diego Padres | 44c | 363.64$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed San Diego Padres | 10c | 360$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Chicago White Sox | 57c | 345.32$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.02 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81b0…858cbacked San Diego Padres | 44c | 340.91$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked San Diego Padres | 44c | 313$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.72 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2d…5116backed San Diego Padres | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfd…a4bbbacked Chicago White Sox | 56c | 223$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.53 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc02a…b43fbacked San Diego Padres | 45c | 222$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Chicago White Sox | 61c | 216.15$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.47 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Diego Padres | 39c | 193$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.27 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…cc6bbacked Chicago White Sox | 56c | 179.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.64 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Chicago White Sox | 55c | 174.43$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.16 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Chicago White Sox | 69c | 169.27$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.6 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Chicago White Sox | 56c | 142.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.86 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed San Diego Padres | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked San Diego Padres | 42c | 111.18$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…2726backed San Diego Padres | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 230 | 51.7%119 W · 111 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0138…8451backed San Diego Padres | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago White Sox | 59c | 84.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Chicago White Sox | 56c | 71.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.55 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc93…b91dbacked San Diego Padres | 44c | 63.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +6.8wins | +0.22per pick | 52cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed San Diego Padres | 44c | 56.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 268 | 53.4%143 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1edb…a60bbacked San Diego Padres | 43c | 55.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed San Diego Padres | 44c | 55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6aa…ef47backed San Diego Padres | 44c | 50.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Chicago White Sox | 69c | 50.06$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed San Diego Padres | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ff…ec82backed San Diego Padres | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 215 | 54.9%118 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…4289backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 39.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Chicago White Sox | 59c | 38.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked San Diego Padres | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 149 | 46.3%69 W · 80 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked San Diego Padres | 34c | 33.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked San Diego Padres | 42c | 32.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed San Diego Padres | 42c | 31.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed San Diego Padres | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e0…a311backed San Diego Padres | 44c | 27.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Chicago White Sox | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Chicago White Sox | 57c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…2c8ebacked San Diego Padres | 44c | 22.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -8.4wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -54%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Chicago White Sox | 77c | 17.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego PadresChicago White Sox won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 3.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 4.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.